My Personal Gold Price Prediction
Disclaimer, this article is based on my gut feeling for my gold price prediction – for whatever value you place on that. I have been in the precious metals business 29 years. After a while you start to develop a feeling about what should (note: not will) happen. First, what has happened so far this year?
Gold (yellow line below) started the year at slightly over $2,000 per oz and has performed better than the S&P 500 (blue line). Gold will easily reach $2,500 this year.
If gold continues to perform as it has for the past two years, up more than 45%, it only needs to rise 20% between now and the end of 2025 to reach $3,000 per oz (see below).
My prediction is gold prices will continue rising due to several key factors:
Economic Uncertainty: Inflation and potential recession
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts, wars, and geopolitical instability are breaking out everywhere.
Central Bank Policies: Central banks worldwide continue to buy massive amounts of gold to diversify their reserves.
Interest Rates: Expectations of lower interest rates will make gold more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
Fiscal Policy: No matter who gets in the White House, that president will deficit spend – guaranteed
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve will continue to print—they have to pay the interest on the debt and meet Treasury demands. And if we tilt into a recession or asset prices fall (stocks, housing, employment), it will print with a vengeance.
I know gold seems expensive—I get it. It has already risen almost $500 this year. But I assure you, it is only going up. You can gamble and try to catch a dip, but averaging in is almost invariably the best strategy.
Remember, gold is not really going up. If the dollar’s purchasing power were preserved, it would not go up. It just takes increasingly more decaying paper to buy it.
Weimer Republic (Germany) 1923 fueling stove with currency:
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